ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients: development, external validation and comparison with other available scores.

OBJECTIVES: The majority of available scores to assess mortality risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients in the emergency department have high risk of bias. Therefore, this cohort aimed to develop and validate a score at hospital admission for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients and to compare this score with other existing ones. METHODS: Consecutive patients (≥ 18 years) with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the participating hospitals were included. Logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a prediction model for in-hospital mortality, based on the 3978 patients admitted between March-July, 2020. The model was validated in the 1054 patients admitted during August-September, as well as in an external cohort of 474 Spanish patients. RESULTS: Median (25-75th percentile) age of the model-derivation cohort was 60 (48-72) years, and in-hospital mortality was 20.3%. The validation cohorts had similar age distribution and in-hospital mortality. Seven significant variables were included in the risk score: age, blood urea nitrogen, number of comorbidities, C-reactive protein, SpO2/FiO2 ratio, platelet count, and heart rate. The model had high discriminatory value (AUROC 0.844, 95% CI 0.829-0.859), which was confirmed in the Brazilian (0.859 [95% CI 0.833-0.885]) and Spanish (0.894 [95% CI 0.870-0.919]) validation cohorts, and displayed better discrimination ability than other existing scores. It is implemented in a freely available online risk calculator (https://abc2sph.com/). CONCLUSIONS: An easy-to-use rapid scoring system based on characteristics of COVID-19 patients commonly available at hospital presentation was designed and validated for early stratification of in-hospital mortality risk of patients with COVID-19.

Clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in Brazil: Results from the Brazilian COVID-19 registry.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the clinical characteristics, laboratory results, imaging findings, and in-hospital outcomes of COVID-19 patients admitted to Brazilian hospitals. METHODS: A cohort study of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients who were hospitalized from March 2020 to September 2020 in 25 hospitals. Data were collected from medical records using Research Electronic Data Capture (REDCap) tools. A multivariate Poisson regression model was used to assess the risk factors for in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: For a total of 2,054 patients (52.6% male; median age of 58 years), the in-hospital mortality was 22.0%; this rose to 47.6% for those treated in the intensive care unit (ICU). Hypertension (52.9%), diabetes (29.2%), and obesity (17.2%) were the most prevalent comorbidities. Overall, 32.5% required invasive mechanical ventilation, and 12.1% required kidney replacement therapy. Septic shock was observed in 15.0%, nosocomial infection in 13.1%, thromboembolism in 4.1%, and acute heart failure in 3.6%. Age >= 65 years, chronic kidney disease, hypertension, C-reactive protein ≥ 100mg/dL, platelet count < 100×109/L, oxygen saturation < 90%, the need for supplemental oxygen, and invasive mechanical ventilation at admission were independently associated with a higher risk of in-hospital mortality. The overall use of antimicrobials was 87.9%. CONCLUSIONS: This study reveals the characteristics and in-hospital outcomes of hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19 in Brazil. Certain easily assessed parameters at hospital admission were independently associated with a higher risk of death. The high frequency of antibiotic use points to an over-use of antimicrobials in COVID-19 patients.